The danger of getting lucky

When someone wins at a slot machine they don’t all of a sudden think they have mastered slot machines and will make a fortune by doubling down.

When someone wins the lottery they don’t all of a sudden think they have mastered the picking of lottery numbers.

The problem is when someone gets lucky in a business venture they do tend to think they are a lot smarter than they really are and then get involved in other ventures that end up costing them some, or all, of what they made.

In some cases, luck has nothing to do with someones success but in many cases, it’s one of the variables (that also includes knowledge, experience, technical skills etc) which affect someones success.

As an example, if you own some property and it’s announced that a big developer is buying up all of the property in the area so you make a big profit, that is lucky. On the other hand, if you know a big developer is buying up the property in the area and you are able to buy a piece of it before they do and then resell it to them, that isn’t luck, it’s taking advantage of an opportunity. To mistake one for the other is when people get in trouble

If you are dependent upon luck to replicate your success, is there really much difference than doubling down on the slot machines?

Have a great day!

Lawrence

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