When forecasting doesn’t work

Using historical data works to do forecasting works great when there has been some type of a precedent.

A restaurant can determine the likelihood of an increase in sales if they change an entree from meat to seafood if they have tracked this type of sales data in the past.

A hotel can determine the effect on room rentals if they change the price of the rooms based on how it has affected things in the past.

We can look at trends on the various social media platforms to determine immediate concerns

The problem with this type of forecasting is it doesn’t allow for the “one of a kind” type events.

No type of forecasting would anticipate planes being flown into the World Trade Center buildings.

No type of forecasting would anticipate random acts of violence.

No type of forecasting would anticipate a new strand of a virus

Big data can be extremely valuable. The risk is thinking it can provide all of the answers.

Have a great day!


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