What percentage is enough?

Last week I was invited to attend a meeting to discuss technology. I wasn’t sure what the purpose or agenda was but agreed to attend so rode 3 hours in each direction to attend. At the end of the meeting I was speaking with another of the participants and we both felt there was around a 25% chance something positive would come out of the meeting and a 75% chance it would result in nothing at all. We also agreed that while there was only a 25% chance of something positive happening as a result of us attending, if we hadn’t attended there would have been 0% chance of something positive happening for us and it was worth the chance.

People buy lottery tickets with only an infinitesimal chance of winning and are willing to take that chance.

People play blackjack with less than a 50% chance of breaking even.

Batters in baseball can make a LOT of money if they are successful 30% of the time.

Why is it in business many people are afraid to try something because it might not work? The fear of trying something and having it fail will result in a lot of “wannabe entrepreneuers” to never try. If you were told you had a 1 in 4 chance of success in starting up a new business would you try or would wait till you increase your odds?

There are no sure things in business (my guess is when News Corp bought MySpace.com they thought that was a “sure thing”) except that if you will only try for the sure thing you will never try anything.

What percentage is enough for you to take a chance?

Just something to think about.

Have a great day!


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